That was the headline in a September 2 Wall Street Journal article. Click here to access it: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204047504574386802310702622.html. This was a really interesting piece which looked at numbers from Standard & Poor’s and NAR. Following is an excerpt from the article:
“Last week, Standard & Poor's reported that its S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index of real-estate values increased this past quarter over the first quarter of 2009, the first quarter-on-quarter increase in three years. Its index of 20 major cities also rose for the three months ended June 30 over the three months ended May 31, with only hard-hit Detroit and Las Vegas experiencing declines. The week before that, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales volume of existing homes was up 7.2% in July from June.
In short, the data suggest that real-estate prices hit a bottom some time during the second quarter, and have now begun to rise. There's no way to be certain that this marks the end of the long, painful correction that followed the real-estate bubble, but clearly prices are no longer in free-fall. That means if you've been sitting on the fence, it's time to act.
Ordinarily I'd never try to time the real-estate market, but I can understand why buyers have been cautious. Few want to buy in down markets, just as stock buyers avoid bear markets. And for most people, of course, buying a house is a much bigger decision than buying a stock. But with real-estate prices nationally now down about 30% from their 2006 peak and showing signs of turning up, the prices aren't likely to go much lower. Every real-estate market is local, and so there may be a few exceptions. Overall, though, I can't imagine a better time to buy than now.”
This of course is what I’ve been saying for some time and it is nice to see it in black and white in a reputable publication like The Wall Street Journal. The fact is, while we may have a long road ahead, we probably have hit bottom and if you were considering buying you probably should consider acting now before it is too late.
And with that said, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
- Davis County—The Bountiful office is asking if anyone else feels like the real estate rollercoaster continues to ramble on? The solid listing and sales activity of the early summer seems to have faded over the last six weeks as reported listings, sales and closings have slowed considerably. Agents are reporting that consumer confidence is better, but is still a bit fragile. There has been a push to educate those buyers who qualify for the federal tax credit to act so they can get the tax benefit before it expires on November 30th, although speculation that this program may be extended is watering down that message to some degree. Properties under $250,000 is still moving fairly well, while inventory in the higher ranges is fairly stagnant. The activity level in the area is good, but the results with regards to closed sales are fairly spotty at best. Frankly, it is very difficult to gauge the trajectory of the market right now. It is dynamic to say the least.
- Salt Lake County North—The Salt Lake office reported buyers are entering the market if they feel secure in their employment as they are understanding that low interest rates and low prices will not last forever. If you can get listings under $300K they are like money in the bank. Listings generate multiple transactions for the Agent, and they are in a strong position with a listing everyone wants. The market has bottomed and we should start to see the movement from starter homes percolate up through other price ranges this fall and moving into the 4th Quarter of 2009. Union Heights reports the market continues to be OK, not great. It remains to be seen what the early fall will bring.
- Salt Lake County South— Slow start to September, but buyer activity has picked up significantly with the approaching $8000 rebate deadline and the new incentive for new construction. Low to mid $200K homes seeing quick sales and multiple offers.
- Salt Lake County West— No change reported.
- Tooele County—Our Tooele office reports listing inventory has increased by approximately 45. Ratified holding steady, but the fall off has been increasing. Probably due to financing difficulties and short sale offers.
- Utah County—No change reported.
- Weber County—Unit sales for August were up in South Ogden over unit sales in August 2008. This is only the 2nd month that we have exceeded 2008 unit sales numbers. Inventory is down significantly, we currently have 56% of the listing inventory that we were caring in August 2008. We have 176 listings now and in 2008 we had 317.
Commentary from Axiom Mortgage President Melissa Wright:
“The new home run grant 11 program was released September 4th which makes available $4000 to qualified buyers of new construction properties. There are a few changes from the original program, including more flexibility for those interested in purchasing a newly-built home, and a lower grant in order to benefit more consumers. Keep in mind this program is not just for first time buyers, but for qualified buyers planning to purchase a new, never-occupied home as their primary residence. Unlike the previous program, grants can be committed for homes not yet built, but are scheduled for occupancy and close by June 30, 2010. Homebuyers planning to take advantage of this program should be quick. There were only 1950 total grants made available and they are going fast. Consumers should grab this opportunity for this grant, as well as checking for additional opportunities from the county/city in which they're planning to buy. These grants, along with the $8000 first time buyer tax credit make it an amazing to me for new home buyers to take the leap. Your Axiom Mortgage Consultant can help you with the paperwork necessary to request the grant at the right time in the process - the grant commitment is only good for 10 days, so using a mortgage company you can count on to close on time is essential. Check with you agent and mortgage consultant for more information and how to take advantage of this special program.”
This week I’ll leave you all with the reminder that the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers is scheduled to expire on December 1. However, in order to qualify, the transaction must be closed on or before November 30, essentially leaving first-time buyers with less than three months to complete the process.
While the urgency of trying to find and close on a home before the deadline may seem stressful, it doesn't have to be. Just contact your Realtor today and they can walk you through the process or visit us online at UtahHomes.com.
Until next week,
Dan Christensen
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Utah
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