Thursday, May 28, 2009

Memorial Day is Over…Soon-to-be-Summer Selling Season Off to a Good Start

With Memorial Day behind us and the busy summer selling season about to begin, some interesting trends are landing in our laps.

First, NAR this week announced that existing home sales rose in April with strong buyer activity, in, as expected, the lower price ranges. Nationally, existing home sales increased 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million units in April from a downwardly revised pace of 4.55 million units in March, but were 3.5 percent below that 4.85 million-unit level in April 2008.

Most of the sales are taking place in lower price ranges but in a positive trend, we are seeing increased activity in the mid-price ranges. This is all a domino effect. A turnaround begins with the lower price range homes and once that sector of the market is stabilized, we begin to see changes in the mid and upper price ranges. The upper end, though we have seen increased activity, still is slow but we fully anticipate that this will change over time, too.

Many of you are asking me questions about the moratorium on foreclosures. In many markets we’ve had a foreclosure moratorium set forth by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as they wanted servicers to reduce interest rates, delay back payments and penalties, stretch the length of the loan or defer payments on part of the principal. The moratorium is likely going to be lifted soon and foreclosed properties are going to be released into the market starting (in many markets) in June and moving through the remainder of the year. In order for a recovery to be sustainable, we really need to clear through those distressed homes so we can begin to sustain a price recovery.

In markets like California, this moratorium has really hindered sales. The demand for housing is outrageous as buyers anxiously await the inventory to increase so they snatch up the listings. In some cases they are seeing 15, 20 offers on properties as they hit the market. The June release of the moratorium is expected to alleviate some of that demand.

While the moratorium has impacted us in some ways, I’m not overly concerned about it here. One reason is that we have had less of a bubble here as compared to other markets in the country. I truly believe that we’ve seen the worst and locally we’re headed in the right direction. Our weekly updates showcase that fact and in analyzing the office data I think we can safely assume that the worst is behind us.

Here are some local articles of interest this week that I wanted to be sure you saw:

http://money.sltrib.com/story.asp?ID=3862518
http://money.sltrib.com/story.asp?ID=3718294
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,705307159,00.html
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,705307031,00.html
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,705307156,00.html

Definitely worth the read and a great reminder of why we call this special place home.

Now, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:

  • Davis County—Sales in the Bountiful office were a little slower last week than they have been in the last few months. Many agents have multiple deals under contract now and are managing that process which may be leading to a slight decline in new pending business. The North Davis office had a good week with 11 sales for the week. Both offices are seeing buyers who have made offers on short sales begin to look at other opportunities as the short sale process is a bit lengthier than they anticipated.
  • Salt Lake County North—Our Salt Lake office reported that Memorial weekend slowed activity but there were still lots of sales ratified. The market continues to see lots of activity in the lower price ranges with multiple offers on many of these transactions. Short sales are getting approvals and closing after waiting for months. Activity is increasing between $350K and $450K as equity is freed up in lower price ranges and these buyers are buying up the bargains. Union Heights reports that activity remains unsteady.
  • Salt Lake County South—Our Draper office reports we have a surplus of homes above $800,000 range. Many owners just owe more than the current market is willing to bear. The condo market still has excess inventory as well. Anything that is not a short sale and bank owned, with a good floor plan in the South end of the valley under $250,000 is seeing significant activity, and many homes are seeing multiple offers. Our Jordan Commons office reports one Agent’s interesting note that Thursday she called to show homes for two separate buyers, a total of 12 homes. Three of them were under contract which hasn’t happened for a while. Yesterday, she went to write an offer on one of the properties and it too was now under contract. When we’re preparing CMAs for sellers, there are now a lot more sold and under contracts showing up to use as comps.
  • Salt Lake County West—Our West Jordan office reports our sales really spiked in the last couple of days! We have had multiple offers on three non-short sales properties this past week (each of these are homes that has been listed for a few months with recent price reductions). We’ve got many busy Agents!
  • Tooele County—Our Tooele office reports a very slow holiday week.
  • Utah County—Utah County has 4431 active sellers and 1011 active buyers in the market for the last 30 days; this is slightly more than a 4 month inventory. 83% of those buyers are purchasing below $300,000, and 69% of the active sellers are currently priced below $300,000, which is why our median price keeps dropping. The market is definitely changed for the better. Agents that I have not seen with business for a long while are doing business. Experienced Agents are doing significantly more business.
  • Weber County—Business is still off the 2008 numbers, but seems to be picking up. Agents are reporting increased buyer activity and title companies have reported increased business. Sales from 100,000 to 300,000 are strong. Fewer sales above 300,000.

Finally, this week I am pleased to share a special guest commentary from Axiom Mortgage President Melissa Wright. Check out what Melissa has to say:

Many consumers have questions about the $6000 Utah Home Run Grant, and whether they can still take advantage of the program. With only 468 grants left (as of 5/27/09), time is of the essence. The program is designed to help buyers purchase newly constructed, never-occupied homes and lighten the inventory of new homes on the market. The grant funds are available at time of closing and can be used towards down payment, closing costs or even cash in pocket! You don’t need to be a first time buyer, but if you are, the grant can be used in conjunction with the $8000 Homebuyer Tax Credit for a total $14,000 benefit. With income limits are as high as $75K/$150K for single/married couples, the grant is available to a wide range of buyers who will occupy the home as their primary residence.

The first step to taking advantage of the grant is to talk to your mortgage consultant. They will help you become an approved buyer and apply for your grant so you and your Realtor® can find your new home.

For more information on this exciting Utah grant program, contact your Axiom Financial Mortgage Consultant today at www.axiomfinancial.com or 1.888.656.LEND.

Historically speaking the week of Memorial Day quiets things down in the housing sector but this year it was a bit different. Thanks to the $8,000 first time home buyer credit, low interest rates and increased affordability, buyers in the first time home buyer market are out in droves and really are snatching up properties. Now that Memorial Day is behind us, we’ll probably see a week or two of quiet yet brisk activity until school is out and then…let the floodgates open. The summer selling season will be in full force.

Until next week,
Make it a great one,

Dan Christensen
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Utah

Thursday, May 21, 2009

NAR Announces Housing Affordability Highest in 18 Years

For months I’ve been sharing that this is one of the best times to purchase a home in decades. Well this week the National Association of Realtors underscored that fact with the release that nationwide housing affordability jumped 10 percentage points during the first quarter of 2009 to its highest level since the series began 18 years ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). The HOI showed that 72.5% of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,000, up from 62.4% during the previous quarter and up from 53.8% during the first quarter of 2008.

Locally, the story is similar. In the Ogden-Clearfield area, 74.4% of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $68,500. That’s up 5% from the previous quarter and up 13% from the same period a year ago.

In Provo-Orem, 65.3% of all homes sold were affordable to families earning the median income of $62,900. That’s up 12% from the previous quarter and up 21% from the same period a year ago.

In Salt Lake, 65.9% of all homes sold were affordable to families earning the median income of $67,800. That’s up 7% from the previous quarter and up almost 20% from the same period a year ago.

For complete details on the report, click here:
http://www.nahb.org/page.aspx/category/sectionID=135

Also, last week I shared with you the importance of our upcoming short sale training. Well this week I came across this article which I think helps to further paint the picture for you:
http://rismedia.com/2009-05-18/distressed-properties-and-first-time-home-buyers-the-recipe-for-real-estate-recovery/

I’d also like to share a couple of other stories of interest from the week:

Finally, many of you have asked me questions about the potential changes in the $8,000 tax credit (http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2009051202?OpenDocument). Essentially the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban development announced that the Federal Housing Administration is going to permit its lenders to allow home buyers to use the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit as a down payment. FHA's approved lenders will be permitted to "monetize" the tax credit through short-term bridge loans. This will allow eligible buyers to access the funds immediately at the closing table. Here is a CNN Money article which explains some of the details: http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/18/real_estate/tax_credit_as_downpayment/index.htm?postversion=2009051912

While it is an exciting turn of events I would caution you that the execution of this is quite complicated and it may take some time before it becomes a reality. HUD will authorize lenders, non-profits and certain agencies to provide a bridge loan which will then be reimbursed at the time of tax refund. These players are not yet identified. Again, an exciting turn of events but the execution and timing of it have yet to be fully outlined. Watch for more to come.

And with that update in tow, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:

  • Davis County— In Davis County Agents are seeing increased traffic through open houses. Buyers seem to be getting more excited about interest rates and are asking more questions about if it’s a good time to try to make a move. Excitement is building for the community yard sale taking place June 6 at North Davis. Several clients have been dropping off items to donate and agents are getting leads from contacting past clients about the event.
  • Salt Lake County North—Our Salt Lake office reports that the market is a little slower this week but activity is still good at open houses. Buyers are putting many homes under contract and then withdrawing from the deal during the due diligence either due to physical conditions or low appraisals. Many of our buyers are also getting beat out on short sales due to multiple offers. These buyers are starting to understand they need to be aggressive on their offers to get them accepted in the lower price ranges. Our Union Heights office reports more activity. There is increased activity in almost all price ranges. We are having a very active market with more and more multiple offers. Our Sugar House office reports that sales are occurring in price ranges from $100,000s to mid $400,000. Most are in the $200,000 to $300,000 range.
  • Salt Lake County South—The market trend is, "Tell your buyers to hurry and buy before they miss out!" Seriously! 90% of the short sales have 3-4 offers and some close to acceptance from the bank due to three months plus long wait. I think the inventory is just starting to weed out. Buyer's Agents are first asking if we have any offers? Agents are also calling back to get more details after a showing. For $215K I've had on an average two showings a day. Buyers have more realistic news about the market, are getting financing in order; before making a decision to choose a Realtor or see homes. I have noticed the last five listing appointments I have done this week have actually had solds and under contracts for the CMA, where the three months prior, most of the market areas I searched did not. I was lucky to find three good sold and under contract comps. That means more things are selling. With my 20 listings, I have gotten a lot more showing calls the last two weeks. Our Draper office reports two closed sales - 1 buyer controlled and 1 seller controlled in a multiple offer situation.
  • Salt Lake County West—Our West Jordan office reports that our office has a large number of short sale offers hanging out there waiting for bank approval. This prompted a look into the actual percentage of active listings that are listed on the MLS as short sale in the cities in the south west part of the Salt Lake Valley. The data represents single family and condo listings. The percentages are: Herriman 35%, Riverton 25%, South Jordan 23%, West Jordan 19% and Taylorsville 19%. That does mean, however, that 76% of the active listings in those cities combined are NOT short sale.
  • Tooele County—Our Tooele office reports that accepted offers have slowed but are still higher than first quarter. Closings are up slightly. Agents are busy but having a difficult time putting transactions together.
  • Utah County—The market is definitely changed for the better. Agents that I have not seen with business for a long while are doing business. Experienced Agents are doing significantly more business.
  • Weber County—One of our under contracts was at $422,500 just under the $500,000 Previews (luxury listing market). Agents are reporting higher activity on their listings with more showings and offers. We're still off 2008 numbers for April, but only by 4% compared to 50% in January. Average sales price is up over 2008 numbers slightly.

As we head into this long, three day weekend I’d like to wish everyone a very happy Memorial Day weekend. Enjoy your time with BBQs, sunshine, maybe a little swimming and (hopefully) a home sale or two.

Until next week,
Make it a great one,

Dan Christensen
President
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Utah

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Recent Housing Stats Are Showing Encouraging Signs for Market

This week I thought I’d share some positive stories that continue to permeate not only our local news but on a national level as well.

The National Association of Realtors® said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in March, rose 3.2% as first-time buyers waded into the market to take advantage of favorable prices and mortgage rates.

A report from the U.S. Commerce Department showed construction spending rose 0.3% in March, the first increase in six months.

The pending home sales report added evidence that sales have reached a bottom. “That's critical because once sales bottom, it's only a matter of time before you work off excess inventories. That's the key to stabilization in the financial system and the economy at large. We're closer to that than people thought just a few months ago.”

-- Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners in Greenwich, Conn., “
Sales and Construction Data Lift Hopes for Housing,” by Lucia Mutikani, Reuters, May 4, 2009.

On a national basis, the forces driving real estate right now are increasingly turning positive and encouraging.



  • Home sales in major markets around the country have shown dramatic gains in the past month.

  • In Florida, statewide sales jumped by 30% in March over year-earlier levels, and were up 33% over the previous month. Even condo sales were up by 25%.

  • In California, statewide sales rose 64% in March compared with March 2008. Unsold inventory is now just five months -- that's down from 12 months the previous March.

  • Median house prices may be bottoming out. The California Association of Realtors® reports the median price of homes sold was up by 2.2% for the past month.”

    -- “
    Real Estate Outlook: Sales Rising in Some Areas,” by Kenneth R. Harney, Realty Times, May 5, 2009.

    Also interesting to note:

  • The current price level of homes seems to be drawing more buyers into the market, according to Jim Gillespie, president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Real Estate. “We are seeing a lot of activity across the nation. Of course we're in the spring market, but we've seen more buyers in the market now than at this same time last year.”

  • “Home prices are where they should be. Sellers are accepting the current reality and are pricing more realistically," said Robert Abbott, co-owner and VP of a northern New Jersey brokerage. “More people are not only 'kicking the tires' but actually buying right now. We are showing significant activity when it comes to sales. The number of days for a house on the market is going down.”

    -- “
    More Homes Get Multiple Offers; Downturn May be Nearing End,” by Julie Schmit, USA Today, May 6, 2009.

    Multiple bids have picked up in recent months in California and other states hit hard by foreclosures and steep price drops, real estate executives say. “If a house is in a good neighborhood, is maintained and is a good value, it'll get multiple offers. One in 10 homes now draw multiple offers, up from one in 30 last fall.”

-- Julie Holt, owner of a title services company in Florida, “Is Now the Time for Some Home Buyers to Make a Deal?,” by Mark Koba, CNBC, April 28, 2009.

So what does all of this mean for our local market?

Well for starters, we’re definitely starting to feel the effects of the short sale and foreclosure phenomena. It seemed a year ago we were almost immune to it. But, alas, a report released earlier this week noted that Utah saw an increase of 120 percent in foreclosure-related filings over the past year and now we have the sixth highest rate among all states. Here is the online story from the Salt Lake Tribune:
http://www.sltrib.com/ci_12364153?IADID=Search-www.sltrib.com-www.sltrib.com

I pulled the stats so you could see a local by county comparison and Utah County has the highest percent total with 20.2% of all listings being short sales. Salt Lake County follows closely behind with 16.8%.



To help our Agents prepare for and be properly educated on the process of short sales, later this month we will be launching a Short Sale Training Seminar that will help streamline the short sale process. It is the first program of its kind to be developed by a residential brokerage firm in Utah. The program is in response to the unprecedented challenges some homeowners face in today’s market. The new training streamlines short sale transactions for lenders and educates the public and our Managers and Agents about the short sale process. If you haven’t yet signed up for the training, I encourage you to do so as soon as possible. It’s a training you and your clients can’t afford to miss.

And with that news in tow, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:



  • Davis County—Our Bountiful office reports that sales have slowed compared to the previous two weeks. The market under $225,000 is really moving well with new listings. Strangely enough, homes that have been on the market for awhile, even if they are in that "Hot" price range do not seem to be attracting as much attention as the new listings. Our North Davis reports several failed transactions this week for various reasons. Appraisal issues (i.e. not enough data to support sales price) starting to surface more regularly. We did have a listing in Riverdale at $189,900 sell in about a week which we haven't seen in quite some time.

  • Salt Lake County North—Our Salt Lake office reported that sales are strong with stabilizing process. Offers are within 95% of asking price on homes under $300,000. In the luxury market, bargain hunters are out there but the market is soft due to limited financing and consumer confidence. Sellers are entering the market in increasing numbers as they want to take advantage of low interest rates. Sellers are becoming buyers on the home they want to be in before value begins to appreciate. Market is beginning to move in all levels under $500,000. Our Union Heights office reports more activity each week. There is increased activity in almost all price ranges. We are seeing a very active market with more and more multiple offers.

  • Salt Lake County South—Our Draper office reports that listing inventory was down a little from the previous week and sales activity was up. Our Jordan Commons office provided this update from one of its Agents: My listing on 7704 S. Lincoln had 11 showings last week and one offer. It's still in the negotiation process, but it has only been on the market 10 days. I still have had some great activity on my listings from CB Connect and have picked up a couple of good leads from that. I do have four other leads. There is a sense in the market place that the economy may have hit bottom so buyers are trying to move forward to get the best deal they can before the market changes to a seller's market. I am also seeing some really well qualified buyers who have strong financials moving forward due to this reason.

  • Salt Lake County West—Our West Jordan office reports that we had a large number of offers written last week on short sales. We have buyers who have offers in on multiple short sales and are waiting to see if they can get one approved. Interestingly, we are starting to see buyers getting tired of the wait and wanting to look at only “non-short sale” properties. In the past six weeks we have only had two properties go under contract that were over $500,000. The majority have been between $200,000 and $300,000. We had a total of 98 properties go under contract in the West Jordan, South Jordan, Riverton, Herriman and Bluffdale area this past week; 72 of them were under $300,000.

  • Tooele County—Our Tooele office reports that Agents are extremely busy. Buyers are still hesitant to make offers. The fall off rate is really high. Most short sale buyers fall off even after price is approved.

  • Utah County—Our Orem office reports we are starting to see multiple offers not only on short sales, but under the $300,000 price range. The inventory has depleted and many areas are starting to see a turn towards a sellers market. You will never see prices like this again; if you want to buy a $1,000,000 home for $500K, don't wait. You may want to get out there and buy now.

  • Weber County—Our Ogden offices report that we are seeing an increase in business in both listings and sold. The most exciting thing we are seeing is an increase in average sales price. What this means to us is that homes are selling in higher price ranges. We also saw brisk sales in the $100,000 to $250,000 price range. Homes above $300,000 are starting to move with several open between $300,000 & $439,900. Agents report a few multiple offers with at least one home selling for over full price.

Overall I think the market is showing some definite signs of recovery. Even with the increase in short sales—or possibly because of—buyers are finally starting to get the sense that now is a good time to buy and that if they wait, they may loose out on one of the best times in Utah history to purchase real estate. It’s an exciting time so make use of it!

Until next week,
Make it great one,


Dan Christensen
President

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Stress Test Reveals There’s More Work to Be Done By the Banks But The Local Real Estate Market Continues to Thrive!

This week the results of the long-awaited Stress Test on the banks were released. What the government hoped to accomplish through this Stress Test was to determine how much more capital the banking sector would need to withstand the recession—much of which was caused by residential mortgages and other consumer loans such as credit cards. The result was that 10 of the nation’s 19 largest banks will need to raise a total of $74.6 billion in capital. The Stress Test revealed that banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan seemed to be better positioned than Citigroup and Bank of America.

At this point, according to Kiplinger, “The stronger banks will actively do what they can to return any money borrowed from the government to get out from under restrictions on dividends and executive compensation. Their ability to sell common stock to the public is far better than their weaker counterparts, who may have to privately sell stock to investors or raise capital with so-called mandatory convertible preferred shares.”

According to industry analysts, it seems that until the banks get back on their feet, credit will continue to be tight. That leaves the Federal Reserve responsible for filling in the gaps with its own lending programs aimed at jump-starting lending.

On a brighter note, however, the real estate sector of our economy continues to show some positive signs—a good symbol that the programs that the government has put in place are helping. USA Today reported earlier this week that “More homes for sale are attracting multiple offers as buyers pursue lower-price homes and banks low-ball asking prices to attract competing bids on foreclosures.” It’s exactly what we’ve seen locally. Just as I revealed in an earlier blog posting, the first time, entry level home buyer market is fueling this recovery. It’s something we certainly forecasted and it’s finally coming to fruition. Now, we’re seeing, in many markets, multiple offers on starter homes and even some frustrated buyers who are scratching their heads and wondering what happened to the buyer’s market. We warned that the change could come before we knew it and in some price ranges, it might’ve already come and went.

Here are some links to some interesting, positive news stories from the week:

Now, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:

  • Davis County—Our Bountiful office reports that April closed out with another strong week of sales, though it is important to point out that there are still challenges once deals are under contract and seeing them through to closing can be difficult. Current production seems to be steady but not increasing. We have had many inquiries from buyers about seller finance and lease option opportunities. We have seen some walk-in traffic. One buyer this week will be able to take advantage of nearly $20,000 worth of incentives on new construction as the builder will pay all of his closing costs, the state will give the $6,000 incentive and the Fed will kick in another $8,000 tax credit. Couple that with a 5% or lower interest rate and that buyer is feeling like this isn’t such a bad time to buy!
  • Salt Lake County North—Our Salt Lake office reported that sales are strong as buyers are gaining confidence in the market and seeing many of the buyers taking advantage of the stimulus grants for first time home buyers and the state Home Run Grant. With inventory shrinking we are seeing multiple offers that are closer to list price stabilizing the market. An estimated 20% of our sales are currently short sales or REOs and as this inventory is removed from the market we should see prices start to rise in the coming months. Our Union Heights office is reporting more activity each week. There is increased activity in almost all price ranges. Very active market; we’re seeing more and more multiple offers. Our Sugar House office reports that the market seems to be steadily picking up thanks to low interest rates. Buyers are starting to jump off the fence. We may see more investor activity with the new Home Path Loan.
  • Salt Lake County South—The Draper office had the most under contracts in one week year to date. We also had the most closed transactions in one month year to date. Draper is starting to see a rise in activity. The Jordan Commons office reports lots of activity on listings up to about $275,000, which is where the multiple offers are. Listings that have been sitting awhile are getting showings and offers. Some Agents are seeing "lowball" offers from both investors and owner occupants. Many people are looking for a deal. West Valley City is out of grant money at the moment, but hopes to have more in July or August. Sellers are being more realistic about what they have to do with pricing and condition to get their homes sold. Good, positive feedback from sellers and buyers.
  • Salt Lake County West—Our West Jordan office reports that several Agents have reported that when they are taking a buyer back for a second showing on a property, they discover that it's already gone under contract. Buyers, it’s important to be aware!
  • Tooele County—Our Tooele office reports that we had 26 accepted offers which marks the sixth week in a row of 25+ accepted offers. This is very good for our area. We should see a jump in closings as a result.
  • Utah County—No information reported.
  • Weber County—Our Ogden and South Ogden offices report that the market seems to be picking up with sales ranging $94,500 to a large land transaction for $1,750,000. Things are looking up!

What do we do with this information? Spread the word! It’s one thing for me to talk about a recovering market but it’s another when even the most pessimistic analysts are doing the same. The stories above share the real story. All of our offices are reporting similar stories and as I visit our offices and talk with our Agents, I’m hearing the same scenario: the market is changing.

The window of opportunity has been open and it has been inviting buyers in for months. Now, the buyers are acting and if you were sitting, cooling your jets, it may be time to start your engine! Don’t wait until you’re kicking yourself and saying, “I should’ve bought a lot more real estate.”

Until next week,
Make it a great one,

Dan Christensen
President
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Utah